Rather Lukewarm: Shifting Perceptions towards the EU among Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Political Elites

In 2019, the European Commission endorsed Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (BiH’s) EU membership application, seen as a significant step. However, subsequent progress stalled as the country failed to address the 14 key priorities outlined in the Opinion. In 2022, in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU granted BiH candidate status. Surprisingly, local political elites displayed lukewarm enthusiasm, prompting research to understand their evolving attitudes towards EU integration. Using the external incentives model, seven interviews were conducted with diverse members of parliament. Findings reveal a decline in political support for EU integration, with elites perceiving BiH as unwelcome in the EU and doubting the impact of local efforts. Geopolitical shifts are deemed crucial for accelerated integration, posing challenges to BiH’s EU aspirations despite stable public support.